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Population Projections

This dataset contains projected population figures from Transport for NSW’s Travel Zone Projection 2016 (TZP2016) version 1.51.
This new version (1.51) provides an update to the previously published TZP2016 version 1.3 .
The main difference is that the base year of the model has moved from 2011 to 2016 using 2016 ABS census data and a number of other updated inputs.
The future year projections in TZP2016 v1.51 align with the (2016 release) Department of Planning and Environment (DPE) population projections (main series) as per the agreed NSW Common Planning Assumptions.
The data includes:
• Estimated Resident Population (ERP) (including 5-year age categories by sex);
• Population in occupied private dwellings (POPD) (including 5-year age categories by sex)
• Population in non-private dwellings (PNPD); and
• Occupied private dwellings (OPD)

The TZP2016 version 1.51 projections reflect the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA) and are provided on a 5-yearly basis for the period 2011-2056. Note that
2011 data is not part of this projection series. The data shown for 2011 is historical data using Travel Zone boundaries in place in 2012.

Detailed information about the model and data can be found in the Technical Guide .
Additional land use information for workforce and employment as well as Travel Zone boundaries for the Sydney GMA and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub.
A visualisation of the population projections is available on the Transport for NSW Website under Forecasts and projections.

CAUTION
Please refer to the data “caution flags” tab in the Population and Dwelling Summary spreadsheet in the Data and Resources section below.

When modelling a potential future land use distribution, it should be understood there is no one single future or a single way to interpret the available data. TPA’s Travel Zone projections seek to represent the most likely future trends for the GMA, based on current data, trends and an understanding of policy/structural changes. They use a “statistical, population-based time series” modelling approach and employ numerous assumptions. They provide “fit for purpose” projections that are designed to assist with strategic transport planning, modelling, and the development of business cases for major transport infrastructure and other strategic purposes.
It should be noted that projections for the distant future are significantly more difficult to provide with certainty. Transport's TZP projections between 2021 and 2036 are supported by various forecasts and strategic plans from both government and non-government organisations. For projections after 2036, there is limited relevant input data available and the model has developed projections in line with identified trends.
Please note, these TZPs were developed for city-wide strategic planning, they should be considered estimates only at the low geographic (e.g. Travel Zone/ SA2) levels.

Key Sources
2016 NSW Department of Planning and Environment Population and Household Projections (main series)
2016 ABS Census of Population and Housing

Data and Resources –updated as at June 2019

Note: TZP 2016 v1.51 dataset below is in 2011 geography. The dataset is also available in 2016 geography upon request. Please email tpa@transport.nsw.gov.au

FieldValue
Modified Date
2019-06-26
Release Date
2017-07-26
Identifier
e35da583-c645-4e15-a7ca-ea6678ae2699
Licence
Public Access Level
Public
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