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Population Projections

Transport for NSW provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2019 (TZP19), released September 2020.

The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions.

This new version TZP19 is an update on the previously published TZP16 v1.51

The TZP19 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:

  • Estimated Resident Population
  • Occupied Private Dwellings
  • Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex
  • Population in Non-Private Dwellings

The projections in this release, TZP19 are five-yearly, from 2016 to 2056 and are in TZ16 geography.

Please note, TZP19 is based on best available data as at late 2019 and does not include impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Key Data Inputs used in TZP19:

For a summary of the TZP19 Projections method please refer to the TZP19 Factsheet

For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP19 Technical Guide

Additional land use information for workforce and employment as well as Travel Zone boundaries and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub.

A visualisation of the population projections is available on the Transport for NSW Website under Forecasts and projections.

The TZP19 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government’s Common Planning Assumptions and population and economic projections.

The projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure, but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

  • TZP19 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns.
  • The TZP19 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at December 2019, pre-COVID19).
  • The projections are not government targets.
  • Travel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results.
  • As a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only.
  • More specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub.
  • Caution is advised when comparing TZP19 with the previous set of projections (TZP16 v1.51) due to differences linked to changes in geographical classifications, the inclusion of 2016 Census inputs, addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology.

Further cautions and notes can be found in the TZP19 Technical Guide

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