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Population Projections

This dataset contains projected population figures from Transport for NSW’s Travel Zone Projection 2016 (TZP2016) model (formally known as LU16*). The data includes:

  • Estimated Resident Population (ERP) (including 5-year age categories by sex);
  • Population in occupied private dwellings (POPD)
  • Population in non-private dwellings (PNPD); and
  • Occupied private dwellings (OPD)

The TZP2016 projections reflect the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA) and are provided on a 5-yearly basis for the period 2011-2056.

Detailed information about the model and data can be found in the Technical Guide.

Additional land use information for workforce and employment as well as Travel Zone boundaries for the Sydney GMA are also available for download on the Open Data Hub.

A visualisation of the population projections is available on the Transport for NSW Website under “Performance and Analytics”

*TZP2016 projections are identical to the LU16 v1.3 dataset provided by Transport for NSW.

When modelling a potential future land use distribution, it should be understood there is no one single future or a single way to interpret the available data. TPA’s Travel Zone projections seek to represent the most likely future trends for the GMA, based on current data, trends and an understanding of policy/structural changes. They use a “statistical, population-based time series” modelling approach. They provide “fit for purpose” projections that are designed to assist with transport planning, modelling, and the development of business cases for major transport infrastructure and other strategic purposes.

It should be noted that projections for the distant future are significantly more difficult to predict with certainty. Transport's TZP projections between 2016 and 2036 are supported by various forecasts and strategic plans from both government and non-government organisations. For projections after 2036, there is limited relevant input data available and the model has developed projections in line with identified trends.

Please note, these TZPs were developed for city-wide strategic planning, they should be considered estimates only at the low geographic (Travel Zone/ SA2) levels.

Key Sources
2016 NSW Department of Planning and Environment Population and Household Projections
2011 ABS Census of Population and Housing

A more detailed description of data sources is included in the Technical Guide.

Data and Resources – reviewed and updated as at 26th Oct 2017

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